Autonomous CLOB Mispricing Resolver

1. The Microstructure Inefficiency in Binary Sports Markets

Prediction market orderbooks (such as Polymarket's Central Limit Order Book) are fundamentally retail-driven. While traditional sportsbooks adjust odds dynamically as lineups change, Web3 prediction markets exhibit significant pricing latency—particularly around in-game degradation variables like bullpen exhaustion.

Retail traders predominantly price baseball moneylines based on the Starting Pitcher's surface ERA and season win-loss records. However, starters rarely pitch past the 5th inning in modern baseball. When a bullpen has thrown 120+ pitches across the previous 48 hours or high-leverage closers are unavailable, the true win probability of the favorite plummets—yet Polymarket crowd share prices remain anchored to opening lines.

2. The 5-Pillar Quantitative Synthesis Engine

The Autonomous CLOB Mispricing Resolver ingests and synthesizes five real-time telemetry streams before the market can recalibrate:

1. Reliever Exhaustion Index (72h Pitch Telemetry): Continuously tracks pitch counts, back-to-back appearances, and closer availability across the entire bullpen depth chart. 2. Platoon Matchup Vulnerabilities: Maps left-handed and right-handed batter splits against the specific pitch mix (slider/sweeper/fastball velocity) of incoming relievers. 3. Atmospheric & Stadium Vectors: Ingests live barometric pressure, temperature, and wind velocity vectors (e.g. wind blowing out to right field boosting home run probability at specific launch angles). 4. Composite Starter ERA: Applies a weighted blend of spring training baseline, rolling season ERA, and strikeout-to-walk ratios (K/BB). 5. Live Orderbook Spread Matching: Calculates the exact bid/ask depth on Polymarket's CLOB via EIP-712 token identifiers to ensure trades are filled with minimal slippage.

3. Empirical Accuracy Scaling (20.0% → 35.4%)

By filtering out noisy prop bets and focusing strictly on high-conviction moneyline mispricings, the system demonstrated a monotonic climb in accuracy across 365 on-chain resolved games:

Because the engine targets asymmetric underdog odds on Polymarket (e.g. purchasing contracts at 0.25–0.40 that resolve to 1.00), a 35.4% win rate generates substantial positive mathematical expectancy—producing +546 in net realized profit across $17,947 in traded volume.