The Telegram Sentinel & Bayesian Risk
one-tap execution & risk throttling
Published: 2026-07-17 | Project: Bet Bodhi | Discipline: Quantitative Engineering & Microstructure
Author: Nicholas Alexander MacAskill — Founder & CTO, Flocano Labs | Canonical: https://www.nicholasmacaskill.com/dossier/bodhi-telegram-sentinel
1. Unified On-Chain Execution via Telegram
With all venues wired up, we built a fully interactive Telegram execution pipeline to control them. When a nightly scan completes, Bodhi generates a report that dynamically lists the exact execution price for every available platform, visibly highlighting the absolute best price across the ecosystem with a gold medal (🥇).
Crucially, the scanner saves the full cryptographic payloads (the raw order hashes and API data) into a local \latest_picks.json\ state file. The user can simply send the \/pick best\ command. The moment that command is sent, the bot routes the saved payload through the Multi-DEX Router, and submits the transaction directly to the correct blockchain. Smart contract slippage protection guarantees native security against stale odds.
2. Sentiment-Adjusted Kelly Sizing
Bodhi doesn't just tell you where to execute, it calculates exactly how much capital to deploy based on real-time on-chain data. Before generating the report, Bodhi natively checks the live USDC balance. It then uses a Fractional Kelly Criterion formula to calculate a precise stake based on the edge.
This mathematical sizing is dynamically throttled by a psychological Sentiment Guard built into the Telegram bot. If the user reports feeling "stressed" with a low calmness score, Bodhi's Bayesian engine applies a risk multiplier (e.g., 0.5x), automatically cutting the Kelly-suggested execution stake in half to protect the bankroll from emotional variance.